The FIFA rankings stink. Here’s what the 2018 World Cup would look like with good rankings.
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ELO is more predictive than FIFA’s men’s rankings, so let’s use it. The FIFA men’s rankings are almost universally derided as nonsensical. They are not predictive in any way, and they are easily manipulated with smart scheduling. This is a problem, given that they’re the basis for seeding in international tournaments. The 2018 World Cup draw has been set, and the pots are based on FIFA’s bad rankings. But what if they were based on considerably less bad rankings?

Currently, the best thing we...

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